Analysis: When two become one

Ma Ying-jeou, New York Times, February 2009
(On U.S. involvement in East Asia)

Analysis by Paul Doursounian. March 11, 2009
(Creative Commons photo, retrieved from Wikipedia)

In an interview he recently gave to the New York Times, Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-Jeou answers a series of questions about his policies regarding the island’s main issues: cross-strait and wider international relations, the current sharp economic downturn, and human rights and transparency in Taiwan.

A Harvard law graduate, Mr. Ma was Justice Minister from 1993 to 1996 and mayor of Taipei from 1998 to 2006. He successfully led the Kuomintang party (KMT) through the January 2008 parliamentary election and, with a high 58% of the vote, was himself elected as his country's president in March 2008, thus putting an end to eight years of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administrations.

Mr. Ma campaigned mainly on the improvement of the economy and enhanced cooperation with mainland China, in clear opposition with former president Chen Shui Bian’s separatist views. Based on his strong mandate, he has presided over a marked warming of cross-strait relations thanks to a number of deals reached over economic cooperation, transport, and tourism between the island and mainland. He states his aim to be to “normalize economic relations” in order to ease tensions and promote growth in Taiwan.

As a matter of fact, Mr. Ma's new deal with China has brought substantial benefits, which span “cost reductions, time savings, freer movement of people, goods, services, capital and information, lower political risks, better investment environment.” China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner and the first destination for its investments, which exceed USD 150 billion.

In spite of clashes and protests during the visits of high-ranking officials from the mainland to Taipei, Taiwan's public opinion largely approves this cross-strait détente. Around a third of the population is believed to be pro-independence, but few would be ready to face the war with China that would ensue any formal move towards independence. Even fewer are in favor of immediate unification, but closer economic ties and political status quo seem to satisfy a majority of the country's citizens.

Indeed, Mr. Ma’s stance on the unification issue can be summed up by the phrase: “no unification, no independence, no war.” Since the end of the civil war in 1949, China regards Taiwan as a rebel province and has repeatedly threatened to resort to force were the island to declare independence. Mr. Ma has accepted to resume talks on the basis of the “1992 consensus,” which states that there is only one China but that each party can have a different interpretation of what a statement means. The unification issue has, however, not been discussed for now, and negotiations have instead focused on pragmatic economic cooperation measures.

As it becomes more powerful, mainland China has every intention to achieve unification with Taiwan. Strategically, controlling the strait would significantly add to its maritime power and provide a basis for expansion into the Pacific Ocean. More importantly, unification is widely seen as a necessary symbol of restored national sovereignty and pride in Beijing, due to the country's recent history of foreign invasions, repeated humiliations, and trampled sovereignty.

Mr. Ma is certainly aware of that. His strategy consists in preventing the possibility of a military conflict by boosting cooperation and building trust and reaping all possible benefits of closer economic integration. In the longer term, he banks on time and the internal evolution of China's mainland to possibly achieve unification with a democratic Chinese government.

In that light, the steps to ratify international covenants for human rights, as well as enhance freedom and democracy in Taiwan are a part of a concerted policy: they entrench Taiwan’s specificity, hence making it impossible for Beijing to ignore. Time, cooperation, and tourism helping, Taiwan’s example could have an impact on the mainland’s society and policies in that field, thereby contributing to democratization in China and serving both parties' interests.

A military confrontation is certainly improbable in today’s circumstances, as China does not yet wield enough power to deter an American intervention and recover from the ensuing international condemnation unscathed. Hoping for China to democratize and accept a negotiated and loose integration of Taiwan is however wishful thinking, at least insofar as such a strategy chiefly depends on totally unforeseeable internal developments.

Voters seem to acknowledge Mr. Ma’s policy is the best way to maintain Taiwan’s de facto independence. Yet he was elected on a promised 6 percent annual growth, and the economy is expected to contract severely this year (between -3 and -11 percent). The economic downturn certainly increases the risk of political and social turmoil that could lead to a loss of support for improved cross-strait relations. In a word, keep an eye out...

Learn more about this topic:

Backgrounder on cross-strait relations

Backgrounder on Mr. Ma's popularity